Chapter 22 - Seven Long Shot Systems

Few players can be as phlegmatic as the oil tycoon who had $25,000 bet to win on a horse in a race in which there were several strong contenders.

The oil man's horse came down front by the barest part of a nose. He turned calmly to a friend and shook his head:

"I thought the horse was better than that."

Even the proverbial Caspar Milquetoast who plays favorites to show only would get a kick out of hitting a horse that paid box-car figures to win. Caspar, however, probably would die of fright if he risked his $2 on a long shot and knew that less than eight per cent of all winners paid 20 to 1 or better.

Nevertheless, the player whose temperament and fortitude will stand it, will go on searching for long shots as long as racing lasts. The player who can shrug off losses and forever keep his eye ahead on that big winner that may be just around the last turn is the only type of turf fan who should stab for the "big ones."

The following chapter outlines some methods by which "turf fishermen" have sought to catch the box-car winners.

System Number 1

For those who like to stab at long shots, here is a plan to work in connection with the daily double.

It must be done in the second race of the daily double, for it depends upon the amount of the payoff on the combination of the winner of the first race and every horse in the second race.

The theory behind this method is this: often a stable has a horse fit and ready to win that just happens to be entered in the second race. They don't want to bet him heavily for fear it will betray the horse's true form and that will send the general public swarming onto him. It's a horse that has shown a number of dull or mediocre performances but which the stable believes has now rounded to top form.

When its horse is entered in the second race of the double, the stable looks over the entries in the first race. If it spots a horse that seems a good risk, the stable couples him with its horse in the daily double. Or the first race may have two or three which are the best of the lot. The stable may combine each of the two or three with its horse in the second race.

There is little additional risk for the stable. If the horse in the first race blows, or if they bet three in that race and all of them blow, the stable still can make flat bets against its own horse in the second race. If the horse they played in the first clicks, the stable can stand pat because they have it in the double.

To spot such plays, we wait until after the first race has been run. The loudspeaker then will announce the possible payoff on the combination of the winner of the first race and all horses in the second race. Or this information often is posted on the side of the tote board.

After copying down these possible payoffs, we divide each one with the odds on the horse in the second race. The result we will call "daily double" odds although there is no such thing officially listed at the track.

Let's assume Number 7, Good Fairy, won the first race. The tote board now lists what the daily double will pay if Number 1 wins the second race, or Number 2, Number 3, and so on. We eliminate the lowest three horses in the second race because many fans like to play the lowest three favorites in each race arranged in criss cross combinations. It costs them $18 to play the nine possible combinations.

What we are looking for can be seen best by actual example from Beulah Park. Maiden Quest, running in the second race, had shown little for almost two years.

It opened at 40 to 1 and kept going up as high as it could go on the tote board. Yet the possible daily double payoff would be only $285. Several other horses which were only 6, 8 and 10 to 1 would pay $400 to $600 in the double if any of them won the second race.

So we divide the possible double payoff on each horse by the odds against him on the tote board. The result gives us our "daily double" odds.

The results were something like this:

Number 1, 6 to 1, double payoff, $400, daily double odds, 65 to 1.

Number 2, 8 to 1, double payoff, $650, daily double odds, 80 to 1.

Number 3, 10 to 1, double payoff, $650, daily double odds, 65 to 1.

Maiden Quest, 50 to 1, double payoff, $285, daily double odds, 1½ to 1.

All other daily double odds (except on the three lowest favorites which we ignored) were better than 20 to 1.

Why then were the odds on Maiden Quest only 4½ to 1? Obviously, someone had loaded up on him in the double and it had to be someone who knew that he was fit and ready because his past performances gave little encouragement to the fan. The only one who possibly would know would be the owner, trainer and stable.

Maiden Quest led all the way around and paid $142 for $2.

This method can be worked at all tracks, big and little. At Chicago tracks, it has paid $72 to $96 mutuels on a number of occasions. Results elsewhere also have been good.

Of course, there is not a play every day and not all of them win. But when a daily double payoff is far out of line with the actual odds on a horse in the second race, the player can put down his $2 with the assurance he will be getting a run for his money. This method comes the nearest of any system to disclosing "inside information."

System Number 2

A friend of the author's reported that he had checked roughly 6,000 races, which is equivalent to about a year's racing on all major tracks. He said that he found that Sweep's fourth horse, after scratches, won about 20 per cent of the time, or about one out of five.

Sample and spot checks since then have shown that the average is slightly below 20 per cent but still good enough for a stab at long shots. Playing one-fifth of a "due" column seems the best way to handle this method.

Capital can be conserved by passing up plays in which the first four entries are low prices.

On June 2, 1955 Sweep's fourth choice hit Canaris in the seventh at Belmont and paid $38.40. Other winners were: William Morton, seventh race at Balmoral (at Washington Park) and paying $30.80; Fiery Imp, third at Detroit, $21; Flying Teddy, fourth at Delaware Park, $11.80; Dateline, third at Thistledown, $28.80.

Winners on May 12, 1955 included: Themis, first at Churchill Downs, $23; Perfect Mister, fourth at Sportsman's Park, $18.60; Amafox, second at Suffolk Downs, $18.

Workout Sheet for No. 2 June 23,1956

1 Delaware—KARYATIDE. $11.20

4 Delaware—VAN DRIVER. $12.40

5 Delaware—MAN'S FANCY. $14.80

7 Delaware—MIZ CLEMENTINE. $11.80

6 Arlington—VEHICLE. $11.20

5 Monmouth—QUEEN YVONNE. $11.80
 
June 25, 1956

2 Washington—-SU JAY. $27.60

7 Delaware—RING O ROSES. $13.00 2 Hazel Park—KING'S TIP. $19.40

5 Hazel Park—VALIDITY. $19.00

5 Suffolk—GRASS SKIRT. $28.20

9 Suffolk—COAXIAL. $14.40

System Number 3 (The "Fourth" System)

Every now and then, a system comes along that can scarcely be explained on the basis of any of the factors discussed in the previous chapters.

Such a method is the "Fourth" system, named for a reason that will be obvious.

1. Note in past performances every horse that finished FOURTH in his last race. Pay no attention to horses that finished in positions other than fourth.

2. If using the Morning Telegraph, look at the comment at the end of the line for the race in which the horse finished fourth—his most recent race. The horse becomes a selection if this comment is favorable.

Favorable comment includes such remarks as:

a. showed good effort
b. closed willingly
c. finished strong
d. much best of rest, etc.

Pass the horse if the comment is unfavorable. Unfavorable comment includes such remarks as:

a. dull effort
b. quit
c. showed little
d. not in form, etc.

3. If using the Racing Form which makes no such comment in the past performances, then whether horse was "favorably" or "unfavorably" thought of must be deduced from the running of that race. "Favorable" would include if horse:

a. gained from stretch to finish
b. lost ground only because of the competition and not because he quit.
c. was in for higher price than he will race for today, etc.

Note—If horse lost ground between stretch and finish it does not disqualify him unless he quit, or lost much ground to the same horses nearest to him throughout the race.

Example—If he was running fourth most of the time and the same three horses were leading him most of the way, then he would not qualify if THREE other horses were ahead of him at the finish. This gives credit to a horse which tires because of pressing the pace or being on it most of the way. He may run a good race and still finish fourth by even 10 lengths.

"Unfavorable" would include:

a. a quitter. A check of several races will show whether the horse has the quitting habit.

b. a horse which never got beyond fourth place anywhere in the race although other horses were changing positions at the top.

With no comment as a guide, selections will have to be a matter of judgment. If the player, however, has the Racing Form monthly chart book he can easily look back and get a full description of the race.

Or the player can watch the result charts, pick up the horses finishing fourth, and note the comments made.

4. Since this method usually picks long shots, two horses can be played in the same race.

But if it is desired to separate contenders they might be chosen under these elimination rules:

a. Choose horse with highest speed rating
b. Horse which raced most recently
c. Horse showing a distinct drop in class

Workout Sheet for No. 3 June 15, 1956

4th Race, Belmont—Two qualified

a. YOU GO—speed rating—86. He dropped in class.
b. FIRM STAND—rating 78 and he was advancing in class

YOU GO paid $20.60

2nd Race, Delaware—BONA REQUEST paid $11.20

7th Race, Monmouth—LOU EFFRAT paid $16.00

6th Race, Hazel Park—GRAND TEMPO paid $10.00

5th Race, Suffolk—GRASS SKIRT paid $28.20

6th Race, Suffolk—AUSTIN MACK paid $16.00

June 16, 1956

8 Suffolk—Three qualifiers.

MR. DUBUQUE, last race carried 112 pounds, today 109

Rating—74

PHANTOM LUCK, last race carried 115 pounds, today 111

Rating—81

HOME FLEET, last race carried 108; today 115 Rating—67

If only one horse in a race were played, Phantom Luck would be the choice. If two were played, the second choice would be Mr. Dubuque.

MR. DUBUQUE paid $81.60

June 16

7 Monmouth—CARTIER, dropping four pounds from his last race. Rating—87

DEEP RIVER, picking up six pounds today and no rating for him. CARTIER paid $24.00

June 19

5 Belmont—SCAMPERING, last race carried 115, today 106—Rating—81. Last race June 12. HIGH REBEL, last race carried 116; today 110—Rating —83. Last race May 30.

In playing one horse, High Rebel could have been the choice or he could have been eliminated in favor of Scampering because of the nearly two weeks' difference in the date of their last races. Since both shed weight and the ratings are only two points different, Scampering could have been the choice.

SCAMPERING paid $53.30

System Number 4

Theoretically, the BEST BET of the Daily Racing Form consensus should be the most substantial risk of the day. But these BEST BETS naturally do not click every time.

The player who disagrees with the consensus, frequently can come up with some good winners by betting the other two horses.

In other words, in the race in which consensus chooses its BEST BET, the fan plays the two horses named second and third. There is no play, of course, if the consensus BEST BET is scratched since that destroys the whole theory of the method.

A check over several weeks will tell the player if he prefers making flat bets on the two horses or if he wants to try some form of progression.

Workout Sheet for No. 4

June 18

7 Belmont—Consensus Best Bet, EQUABLE
 
Second horse—scratched

Third horse—BLUE BANNER—$6.40

6 Monmouth—Best Bet, ROYAL BEACON—lost

RAMROD won, paid $10.40

June 21

7 Suffolk—Best Bet, MOTOR LINE

LORD SWEEP won—$7.60

5 Delaware—Best Bet, CONDITION RED PRINCESS GLADE won—$12.40

June 22

2 Hazel Park—Best Bet, WHY STEP ROYAL SABER—$7.80

7 Belmont—Best Bet, POWER G-TWO won—$7.70

2 Monmouth—Best Bet, RASCAL YOU

WARETTE won—$11.80

3 Delaware—Best Bet, ACHILLES

PROTAGONIST won—$19.80

7 Belmont—Best Bet, FISHERMAN THINKING CAP won—$15.10

System Number 5

Since Trackman should know more about the horses at a particular track than the selectors who work in the home office, it should be of interest to all players when Trackman picks a horse, one, two or three that is not named by any other selector.

Such a horse, Trackman believes, is rounding to form although his past performances may not show up brilliantly. Perhaps Trackman caught the horse in a good workout, or he may just have a feeling that the horse is shaping up for a winning effort.

A selection, then, is any horse mentioned by Trackman but which is not picked by any other selector, first, second or third.

A "due" column with play being one-fifth of the due amount seems a good way to handle such selections.

On June 2, 1955, only two such horses qualified at Balmoral (at Washington Park). Cheriful, in the first race, bled and was pulled up. Sandy M in the eighth race paid $50.20.

Once in a while, all three horses of Trackman are not mentioned by any other selector, or two of them might not be picked.

A good procedure is to pass a race in which two, or all three, of Trackman's choices are not mentioned by any other selector. A friend, however, plays two in such a race and he chooses the highest-priced two horses. Thus on May 12, 1955 in the fourth at Belmont Park, Trackman had all three horses exclusively. One of them Hildrix, won and paid $15.40.

The same man also reported he got some good ones by "fudging" a little on the rules. He plays if only one other selector chooses the same horse and the horse is not mentioned in the consensus. As an example, he cited the sixth race at Churchill Downs on May 12, 1955 in which Lori-Jane, one of Trackman's choices was mentioned only by Handicap and was not mentioned in the consensus. Lori-Jane paid $36.60.

Workout Sheet for No. 5 June 15

6 Suffolk—GRASS SKIRT. Trackman had him third. No other selector mentioned him.

GRASS SKIRT—$28.20

June 16

6 Suffolk—BROWN BOOTER. Trackman had him second. No other selector mentioned him.

BROWN BOOTER paid $11.00

2 Belmont—PAMPAS. Trackman had him second. No other selector mentioned him.

PAMPAS paid $35.00

June 18

1 Monmouth—SUN FAME. Trackman had him third. No other selector mentioned him

SUN FAME paid $15.40

System Number 6

For the real joy of stabbing, here is a method designed only for the player who really can "take it." But even the most stout-hearted should fudge a little.

Every track has days in which no favorite seems to find his way home. Horses that have shown little, or nothing, in their past performances suddenly start romping down home first.

Although no one can predict when such days are coming, here are two good signs:

a. When the track overnight, or between early morning and race time, turns from fast to slow or muddy.

b. When favorites have been exceeding the 35 per cent margin by many points. The heading above the result charts gives the percentage of winning favorites last year and at the current meeting to date. If the percentage of winning favorites now is 5 points, or more, above last year's average, it usually is a sign that a long shot day is coming.

Selections are made easily and simply. Just cross off every horse picked first, second, or third by any of the five Racing Form selectors. All horses left are played on flat bets.

The results, at times, are satisfactory. On May 12, 1955 at Sportsman’s Park, there were seven horses not picked first, second or third by any of the selectors. The winner, Perfect Mister, paid $18.60.

In the sixth race that day, only three horses were not picked by any selectors. A two-dollar ticket on each of those three returned $31, for Restraint won and paid $31.

System Number 7 The Lone Selector Method

Here is a system that gives plenty of action and produces winners whose payoffs often soar into the atmosphere.

Selections are made in a matter of seconds. Rules:

1. Play all horses in the race which are mentioned by only one of the selectors. It doesn't matter if the selector picks him first, second or third so long as no other selector or the consensus mentions him.

2. Pay no attention to any other factor such as weight, distance, etc.

Workout Sheet for No. 7

(Note: all selections mentioned in the Workout Sheet for No. 5 would also have been selections.)

In addition, the Lone Selector Method also picked these goodies:

June 15

2 Washington—SU JAY picked third by Hermis and mentioned by no other selector. SU JAY paid $27.60

5 Hazel Park—VALIDITY picked third by Hermis and no other selector. VALIDITY paid $19.00

7 Hazel Park—ROYAL TOUCH picked third by Sweep and mentioned by no other.

ROYAL TOUCH paid $16.20

4 Monmouth—MAGIC TOES picked second by Handicap and mentioned by no other.

MAGIC TOES paid $33.00

June 16

2 Delaware—FLEET FIGHTER picked first by Clocker but mentioned by no other.

FLEET FIGHTER paid $18.20

6 Delaware—STAFFORDSHIRE picked third by Clocker and not listed by other selectors. STAFFORDSHIRE paid $29.00
4 Hazel Park—PERNIE LEE picked second by Analyst and not mentioned otherwise.

PERNIE LEE paid $27.20

1 Washington—COFFEYVILLE picked second by Handicap and no other mention. COFFEYVILLE paid $13.20

2 Monmouth—TATTIEBOGIE picked second by Handicap and no other mention. TATTIEBOGIE paid $14.60

7 Monmouth—CARTIER picked second by Analyst and no other mention. CARTIER paid $24.40

Are You Ready To Move Onto The Next Lesson? Click Here….