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Chapter 21 - Eleven Medium Security Systems
In the shadow land between the solid, security horses of the last chapter and the long shots to come, there are many horses that show a fair degree of consistency and which return better mutuels than the most substantial selections. The player, however, must remember that in racing, like in all ventures, the greater the return the greater the risk. In racing, this risk can be described mathematically as has been done in a previous chapter. It was shown previously that first, second and third favorites account for 70 per cent of all winners. The objective in the following systems is to suggest methods by which a player might reasonably expect to snare winners that pay better than the most solid horses but still not increase the risk beyond the point of good returns. System Number 1 Although this method has five rules, it actually has only one because four of the rules are just to eliminate ties. That is, if a horse (and only one) qualifies you look no further. You proceed to Rule 2 only if no single selection shows up under Rule 1. In other words, when you find the first horse (and only one) to qualify under any of the rules, you do not proceed further except to check the Daily Racing Form consensus as will be explained later. A. Play only high-class claiming races, allowances or graded allowances. B. A selection, to qualify fully no matter under what rule he was picked, must still be named in the consensus to win or place. Rules: 1. If one horse (and only one) ran in a stakes race the last time out, he becomes a selection. (Provided he is mentioned first or second in the consensus.) 2. Proceed to this rule only if more than one horse qualified under Number 1. If only one shows a win in a stake race in his last six starts, he qualifies. (A horse that runs within half a length of the winner can be counted as having won.) The horse need have run only one stake race in his last six, but if he won that race, he qualifies. 3. If only one horse has run the last three times in stake races, regardless of where he finished, he qualifies. 4. If only one horse has run in stakes in his last two races plus another race in his past six and has won a handicap or allowance, he qualifies. 5. A horse must have run in a stakes race the last time out and must have run in two other stake races in his last six starts. He also must have won either a handicap or allowance race. It must be kept in mind that it is not necessary to proceed any further once any of the rules selects a bona fide choice. As has been pointed out, if only one horse qualifies under Rule 1 he becomes the selection, and the other four rules can be disregarded. It must be remembered, too, that under all rules, the horse, to be a selection, must be named first or second in the consensus, after scratches. Workout Sheet for No. 1 June 15 7th Race, Belmont—BLUE BANNER paid $6.40. BLUE BANNER qualified under Rule 3 after INSOUCIANT was scratched to move BLUE BANNER to No. 2 spot in the consensus. June 16 6th Race, Washington—LORI JANE paid $6.80. LORI JANE qualified under Rule 1. System Number 2 Although the number of rules in a system is not a criterion by which to judge its results, many players shy away from any method that at first glance looks complicated. Here is a method that shows good consistency and which is far easier to follow than the number of rules may indicate. Arriving at a selection is easy provided the following steps are taken in order: 1. A horse must show a 50 per cent consistency for win and place. Show finishes are not considered. For horses with less than six starts during the year, combine their previous year's record and the two together must have a 50 per cent win-place consistency. It only takes a minute to run your eye over the line that gives total starts for the year and note if the horse rates 50 per cent. 2. If the horse is entered in a claiming race he must have raced not longer than six days ago. For claiming races above $5,000 or allowance races, the time limit can be seven days, and handicap and stake races, eight days. 3. The horse must have finished within four lengths of the winner the last time out. 4. A horse that won his last race can step up about 20 per cent in claiming price. However, an allowance, handicap or stake horse must be going in the same identical class or lower. 6. Weight, jockey and track conditions are ignored. 7. If two horses qualify, choose the one whose last race was most recent. If the two still are tied, pass the race. Workout Sheet for No. 2 June 22 8th Race, Suffolk—MAX'S REWARD paid $13.00. Last race was June 16. Year's Record—9 starts and five seconds or more than the 50 per cent for wins and places. System Number 3 Many players shy away from the better class of races because competition usually is too keen. Three or four serious contenders in the same race can make a player figure and puzzle as much as a race in which there is no horse with any form. 1. Consider only handicap and allowance races, but pass races for two-year-olds or three-year-olds. In other words, the race description should say: "for three-year-olds and up," or "for four-year-olds." 2. The selection is the horse with the highest speed rating. Speed ratings are given in the past performances in the Daily Racing Form. 3. The selection should be a four- or a five-year-old. A three-year-old is eligible only if: a. He has raced more than six times; b. He has a record of 50 per cent wins. 5. If only two horses are tied, choose the one who had the highest speed rating in his next to last race. Workout Sheet for No. 3 June 16 6th Race, Belmont—YLASTER—rating 101. AKSBAR KHAN—rating 99. KASTER paid $6.90. AKSBAR KHAN ran second. 7th Race, Monmouth—BLUE SPARKLER—rating 96. Paid $5.00 System Number 4 Here is a variation of one of the "security" methods. Changes have been made in order to produce better mu-tuels while, at the same time, not increasing the risk in proportion. 1. Consult Sweep's graded entries and consider only his lowest-priced horse. If the horse is 8 to 5, or lower, consider it as even money, 1 to 1. A horse 9 to 5 or 11 to 5, is 2 to 1. A quotation of 5 to 2 (2½ to 1) is made 3 to 1, 7 to 2, becomes 4 to 1, and so on. 2. If, after converting the lowest horse to even figures, the next lowest horse is three points, or more, higher, the low-priced entry becomes a possible play. 3. The lowest-price horse, in addition, must rate at least 20 points in the consensus. If he is less than 20 points in the consensus, then the second consensus horse must not be more than 12 points. June 23 4th Race, Monmouth—DARK PETER quoted at 7 to 5. CABLE JACK and SOUR NOTE next lowest at 4 to 1. DARK PETER paid $4.20 6th Race, Monmouth—DECATHLON quoted at 1 to 1. ITOBE at 5 to 1. DECATHLON paid $4.40 System Number 5 Maidens (horses that never won a race) give most players the jitters. The axiom is that until a horse has won he has no form, or, at least, no form that can be figured accurately in any method of selection. A check shows good results from these types of maidens: 1. Maidens in races for three-year-old maidens only. (If the race is for three-year-olds and up, pass it.) 2. Two-year-old maidens after September 1. 3. A horse from either 1 and 2 must also be top choice of the Racing Form consensus and must be rated at least 12 points above the second consensus horse. 4. The horse must have been in the money in his last race. 5. The last race must have been the same distance as today. Workout Sheet for No. 5 June 22 4th Race, Monmouth—Race for three-year-old maidens. IN ROME AS rated 22 points in the Consensus. Was third, last time out. Last race and today's race were both at six furlongs. IN ROME AS paid $4.80 System Number 6 Although weight, as was pointed out in a previous chapter, is not a vital variable in itself, nevertheless, the pack a horse is asked to tote is important. Here is a method built entirely upon weight. 1. Eliminate all maiden races, steeplechases, two-year-olds, and handicaps or stake races in which the purse is $10,000 or more. 2. The selection is the horse which today is dropping at least three pounds over the weight he carried the last time. 3. He must have finished in the money in his last race. 4. His last race must have been run within one calendar week. 5. If two horses qualify, play the horse carrying the heaviest weight today when the track is fast. For an off track, play the horse carrying the lesser weight. When more than two horses qualify, pass the race. On May 12, 1955, this method picked: Sportsman's Park, second, Specific, $6; Churchill Downs, eighth, Miss Revoked, $12.80; Garden State, sixth, Miss Shadow, $14.60. Workout Sheet for No. 6 June 16 10 Hazel Park—BIG CAT Last race finished second within one calendar week Weight last time 122 Weight today 117 BIG CAT paid $9.80 June 20 8 Suffolk—DOUBLE BID Last race June 16—finished third Last race carried 119 pounds Today's weight, 111 pounds DOUBLE BID paid $9.60 8 Belmont—BORDER SON Last race June 14—finished third Weight last time 110 Today's weight, 106 BORDER SON paid $21.20 7 Belmont—G-TWO Last race June 15—finished in the money Weight last time 113 Weight today 110 G-TWO paid $7.70 System Number 7 Here is a method which plays the favorite but the wagering plan takes a different twist. The player pre-determines how much he wants to win for the day, and then tailors his system to fit that sum. Naturally, the more he wants to win the more capital he risks. Play starts in the first race with the favorite. Or if the first race is a "baby" race (for two-year-olds only) or a "dog" race (horses which are cheap and have shown no form), the player may want to sit it out. Let's assume the player wants to make five dollars for the day. The favorite in the first race is even money. To make $5 net, he must risk only $5. If the horse wins, the player pockets his $5 and quits for the day. If the horse loses, the player now must figure on $10, for he must recoup, the lost $5 and also make the $5 profit. Therefore, in the second race, if the favorite again is even money the player wagers $10. In other words, each wager is just enough to cover all losses and to return that $5 profit. Play stops for the day as soon as a winner is struck. In favor of the player is the fact that odds are 25 to 1 against a full card of eight races being run without one favorite winning. Workout Sheet for No. 7 June 25 Arlington Park First Race—Favorite was SIXTY TWO at odds of $1.80 to one. To win $5 it was necessary to bet $3. SIXTY TWO ran second. Second Race—Favorite EKABA at odds of $2.90 to 1. This time we want to recoup the $3 loss and also win $5 net. To win $8, a $3 bet was necessary. EKABA ran out. Third Race—Favorite, DANCE-A-JIG, was $1.60 to 1. Since we have lost a total of $6 and also want to win $5 it is necessary to bet a sum that will return $11. A wager of $7 returned $11.20 profit which completed the transaction for the day. System Number 8 A horse that wins should be at peak form and should come back to win again the next time out. But few of them, except the best horses, repeat. However, the player need not be prejudiced against all winners, for some of them will repeat the next time out. The best chance to catch a repeater is to make your selection by these rules. 1. If the win was in a maiden race, pass up the horse. Maidens when they win seldom repeat. 2. Horse must be going back within 10 days of his winning race. 3. He must have been in money in 50 per cent of all his starts for the year, and he must have raced at least six times. If less than six starts, he must have been in money at least 60 per cent instead of 50 per cent. 4. His winning chart must say he won "easily, breezing, handily," or some other description that indicates he wasn't "all out" at the end. If chart of the race is not available, consider winning by a length or more, as qualifying him. 5. If two or more qualify, pass the race. Example: Balmoral (at Washington Park), May 12, 1955, seventh race. Selection: No Tricks. Was in the money 5 of 6 last races. Won last race by two and a half lengths. Last race only three days previously. No Tricks won easily and paid $4. Other winners on the same day included: Churchill Downs, Agnes Lynn, $3.60; Weep and Wail, $6.80; Suffolk Downs, Norquay, $5.40. A check shows no satisfactory way of breaking ties when two or more horses qualify, but the player might like to try out his own elimination plan. June 23 3rd Race, Suffolk—CELLINI. Last race was June 14. Won by 1½ lengths "handily." In the money three times in six starts. CELLINI paid $13 6th Race, Delaware—PAINT THE TOWN. Last race was June 18. Won handily. In the money seven times in 12 starts. PAINT THE TOWN paid $11.80 June 25 8th Race, Arlington—PRIMACY. Last race was June 18, so he qualifies by date. Records shows two wins and two shows in six starts or more than 50 per cent. PRIMACY won the last time by only 3A of a length but was "drawing away at the finish." That makes him eligible for a play. PRIMACY paid $15.80 4th Race, Delaware—GENERAL JAY. Last race was June 14; won easily by three lengths. In eight starts, GENERAL JAY was in the money five times. GENERAL JAY paid $4.40 System Number 9 Many methods have been devised that are based on a horse's last six, seven or more finishes. The following plan is based on the last six finishes. If two or more entries in the race have not started six times, pass the race. 1. All finishes above FOUR are counted as four. 2. All other finishes are counted at their face value. 3. The horse with the lowest total figure in his six past races is the selection. Although this at first sounds complicated it is very simple as the workout sheet will show. Workout Sheet for No. 9 May 12, 1955 8th Race, Pimlico—SIDE SADDLE. Actual last six finishes 1, 3, 2, 5, 1, 1—total 13. But since we do not go above four the 5 becomes four and the new total is 12. That was the lowest for any horse. SIDE SADDLE paid $8.40 June 23, 1956 6th Race, Arlington—VEHICLE. Actual finishes 1, 1, 1, 7, 8, 6. Corrected finishes: 1, 1, 1, 4, 4, 4, total 15. RECLAIM. Actual finishes: 5, 2, 1, 1, 6, 7. Corrected finishes: 4, 2, 1, 1, 4, 4, total 16. No other horse was close. VEHICLE paid $11.20 Ties are broken as illustrated by the 8th race at Arlington for the same day. 8th Race, Arlington—SEA OF ERIN. Actual finishes 6, 1, 2,4,2, 1, total 16. Corrected finishes: 4, 1, 2, 4, 2, 1, total 14. STYRUNNER. Actual finishes 1, 2, 5, 1, 6, 2, total 17. Corrected finishes: 1, 2, 4, 1, 4, 2, total 14. SEA OF ERIN and STYRUNNER tied at 14 each in the corrected finishes. To break the tie we turned to the actual finishes which gave SEA OF ERIN 16 and STYRUNNER 17. SEA OF ERIN paid $8.00 A glance at the past performances showed also that Sea of Erin was a much better horse. He had been running consistently in stake races and his total earnings far surpassed that of Styrunner. Since prices are apt to be good with this system, it can be played on "due" bet method. Play is one-fourth of the amount in the "due" column. System Number 10 (The Repeater System) A glance at the past performances in any racing paper will show that only a few horses win two or more consecutive races. Cheaper horses do not repeat because a winning effort usually takes something out of them. Moreover, a win means that they will be assigned additional weight in their next outing. The only way an owner can avoid that extra weight is to move the horse up in class and that means he may be in over his head. High caliber horses do not win many consecutive races because competition in the big stakes and handicaps is especially keen. Now and then "wonder" horses come along, but for the most part, the horses take turns beating each other. To play each winner the next time out would be unprofitable. Yet there is a way to play winners and make a profit. The rules in this Repeater System are simple. 1. From the past performances of the Racing Form or any racing paper, note the horses which won their last race. 2. If this winning race was a maiden race, eliminate this horse. 3. If this winning race was over 10 days ago, pass him. The time might be extended to 12 days if the horse has been consistent as discussed in the chapter on Consistency. But when in doubt, pass up the horse. Type A—is a horse who won his last race and who showed a gain from the stretch to the finish line. It doesn't matter where the horse was at the stretch provided he gained by the time he hit the wire. Example—Frost Bite won his last race which was eight days ago. At the stretch he was third by half a length and won by almost a length. Thus he gained ground from the stretch to the finish and becomes eligible for play. If Frost Bite had been first at the stretch by two lengths and had won by one length he would not be eligible since he LOST from stretch to finish. On the other hand, if he were third at the stretch by two lengths and won by only a head he still would be eligible for he made a gain through the stretch. Type B—A Type B horse is one that did not lose nor gain through the stretch but held steady. For example, if Frost Bite had been leading by a head at the stretch and had won by a head he would be a Type B selection. Or he would be eligible if he were first by a length at the stretch and won by a length. As a general rule, Type A horses will repeat more consistently. Type B horses, as a general rule, are likely to pay a better mutuel. Either type can be played on a flat bet which means that a mild progression should go well. 5. If there are two or more qualifiers in the same race, it is best to pass the race. For those who want to play, contenders might be separated by these rules: a. Type A gets the preference over Type B. b. Weight off preferred over weight on if the difference is three pounds or more. c. Choose according to their speed ratings. June 15 7th Race, Suffolk—BIG HEART paid $5.20 8th Race, Suffolk—SOFT REWARD paid $13.00 4th Race, Washington—MOOSE SIGN paid $5.20 7th Race, Washington—OLYMPIA BLEND paid $4.20 8th Race, Belmont—GANG MISS paid $4.00 June 19 4th Race, Belmont—FLORAL PARK paid $8.70 8th Race, Belmont—ARDANTIA paid $8.20 1st Race, Monmouth—MAGIC TOES paid $10.00 2nd Race, Monmouth—MARY N' LIB paid $7.40 6th Race, Hazel Park—FBI REWARD (last race 12 days) paid $16.00 Prices of repeaters range up to $20 and $30. Prices such as the $19 paid by Sir Sidney at Suffolk on June 20 are not uncommon. But most returns, however, will be more modest. System Number 11 (The Workout System) As pointed out in other chapters, workouts can disclose much about a horse's form and also hide much. But there is one type of workout that seems to reveal a lot not only about the horse but also about the owner's and trainer's intentions. That is the workout covering five-eighths of a mile. The rules for this method are: 1. Play no maiden races or horses. 2. Play no two-year-olds in the spring. 4. If only one horse in the race has had a five-eighths workout at 1:05 or faster, he becomes the selection. 5. If two or more qualify, separate them by taking the one with the highest speed rating. 6. To separate horses still tied: a. Give preference to the horse with the most recent race, especially a difference of five or more days. b. Choose the horse who is shedding weight over the one picking up more pounds. Workout Sheet For The Workout System June 15 8th Race, Monmouth—Two qualifiers tied a. STONINGTON. Last Race May 3 b. LITTLE TEACHER. Last race May 22 LITTLE TEACHER becomes selection LITTLE TEACHER paid $21.40 7th Race, Washington—One qualifier OLYMPIA BLEND paid $4.20 7th Race, Suffolk Downs—Two qualifiers a. CASH ME IN. Last race April 22 b. FULL BROTHER. Last race May 3 FULL BROTHER paid $7.20 6th Belmont—One qualifier PUCKER UP paid $4.60 8th Race, Delaware—One qualifier PENNSY FLIER paid $11.80 4th Race, Belmont—One qualifier ARDAN UP paid $4.40 3rd Race, Belmont—One qualifier TEANECK paid $7.50 7th Race, Belmont—Two qualifiers a. PEIGNOIR picked up 11 pounds to 122. A check shows he never carried such weight successfully. b. CARELESS MISS picked up only one pound—114 to 115 CARELESS MISS paid $7.90 4th Race, Suffolk—Two qualifiers a. CASH ME IN—picked up 109 to 117 pounds b. MISS HAZEL MISS HAZEL paid $56.00 6th Race, Suffolk—One qualifier LENOMOUS paid $5.00 4th Race, Monmouth—One qualifier INDIAN FILE paid $11.00
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