Chapter 20 - Ten Security Systems

When Mussolini was Italian dictator, he once told American correspondents that he felt it was better for man to

live ten years as a lion than 50 years as a lamb.

Some players have about the same philosophy. They would sooner go broke stabbing around for long shots than make money playing more conservative selections. Other players like to dream about long shots but to confine themselves more to reality when they are awake. Their aims are:

1. To select "solid" horses that win consistently;

2. Selections which, because of their consistency, will require limited capital;

3. Selections that will minimize the risks of losing their capital.

Naturally, such horses will return comparatively small mutuels. For usually such a horse is the best one in the race and needs only a normal share of luck to win. Such horses, however, are only for those players who have patience and will power. A $6 mutuel may not quicken the pulse nor cause the blood to race through a player's arteries but $6 still will buy some things. A 20 to 1 shot buys nothing for the player if the horse breezes in fourth or worse.

This chapter shows some ideas that have been devised in an effort to select horses that win frequently and consistently.

System Number 1

In a previous chapter, it was pointed out that the best 179 things in racing for the player often evolve from the ideas of many people. Here is a method that proves this statement.

As originally devised, the method required a selection to be the BEST BET of both Trackman and Sweep (in the Daily Racing Form). Through trial and error, it was found by another checker that the best results came by considering only Trackman*s BEST BETS, provided Sweep had the same horse on top but not as BEST BET.

There is logic behind this change. Trackman, "at the scene of action," knows more than any other selector about the horses running there. When he names a BEST BET it deserves to be considered. On the other hand, Sweep is "conservative." If he likes the same horse well enough to put on top but not as a BEST BET, the chances are that the horse not only is a good risk but will pay a fair mutuel.

This method over a long check showed a consistency of almost 60 per cent. Some selections paid as high as $11, and $7 to $9 mutuels were not rare. The check was made on the basis of a flat sum to win and double to place.

The rules are simple:

1. The horse must be the BEST BET of Trackman. Sweep must have him on top but NOT as BEST BET. If Sweep also has the horse as BEST BET pass him up.

2. Do not play two-year-olds, maidens, jumpers or "freak" races such as distances beyond a mile and a quarter or "extravaganzas" such as stake races worth $25,000 or more.

3. Horse must have won at least one race during current year unless it is early in the spring. Then his record for the previous year and this year must show 50 per cent in the money.

4. Horse must have raced TWICE within the past month and his last race must have been run NOT more than a week ago.

5. One of his last TWO races must have been in the money.

6. BUT if he WON EITHER of his last two he also must have been in the money in half of all his races for the current year.

(The purpose of Rule 6 is to point out the consistent horses which can hold their form. It steers the player off those horses who cannot be expected to win again for some time).

Some judgment is called for which will be plain to every player. In January, for example, it would be foolish to say that the horse must have won at least once during the current year. The checker arbitrarily set March 15 as the date which puts into effect the rule that he must have won at least once in the current year. Before that, if he won in November or December at a winter track, he was eligible for play provided he had a 50 per cent "in the money" rating for that year.

System Number 2

Here is a little method that frequently has hit six, seven and eight consecutive winners, and once went to 12 straight before it broke. The 13th: horse ran third.

The check was made on a basis of $1 to win and $2 to place; that is, a flat sum to win and double that amount to place.

Selections are made automatically and almost at a glance. A selection is the BEST BET of the Daily Racing Form consensus provided:

1. It is 25 points or more ahead of the second consensus horse.

2. It was a beaten favorite the last time out.
 
Before you snub such a simple method, check it. Naturally, there can be only one play at any track on any particular day. The prices, too, are short, for the method picks out substantial horses.

System Number 3

In checking method Number 2, it was found that many horses had to be discarded because they did not quite qualify.

In attempting to salvage some of these selections, one group was found which turned out to be almost as consistent as the 25 points or better and beaten favorite group.

The changes were these: a horse (consensus BEST BET ONLY) could qualify at 22 points, instead of 25, if he had won his last race. Again, the betting was a flat sum to win and double that amount to place.

This method, it must be understood, does not change System Number 2 in any way. The rule in Number 3 that a selection must have won his last race automatically prevents his qualifying under System Number 2.

These are the only types of "discards" from Number 2 that proved consistent although the player might like to check them further.

System Number 4

A horse becomes a play by meeting all these provisions:

1. All five selectors in the Racing Form must have him on top.

2. He must have raced within 15 days.

3. He must be picking up no more than three pounds over his last race.

4. Today's race must not have more than 12 starters.

5. He must have won or been second in one of his two last races, OR he must have been in the money in two of his last three races.

(The workout sheets for all systems are intended only to illustrate how selections are made. They do not necessarily include all selections for any particular day mentioned.)

Workout Sheet for No. 4 June 19

7th Race, Arlington Park—BLACK EMPEROR. Raced last on June 13. Picked up only two pounds. Going same distance as in same class today although these two factors do not have to be considered. BLACK EMPEROR paid $10.40

June 20

7th Race, Delaware—ANN'S LOVE. Raced last June 13. Carrying same weight today. Won last. ANN'S LOVE paid $5.40

June 23

8th Race, Delaware—THIRD BROTHERS. Raced last on June 13. Won last race. Dropping weight. THIRD BROTHERS paid $4.80

System Number 5

A horse to be a play must:

1. Be top choice of all five Racing Form selectors.

2. Sweep and the consensus must have the same other two horses but not necessarily in the same order.

3. Be running on a fast track.
 
This method excludes both maiden races and maiden horses.

Workout Sheet for No. 5

June 20

7th Race, Delaware—ANN'S LOVE. Top choice of all selectors. Sweep and Consensus had the identical other two horses. ANN'S LOVE paid $5.40

System Number 6

A friend of the author's once sent him the results of a long workout on a method that was simple but which had an amazing consistency. In the workout sheets, there was one stretch in which the method picked 20 successive winners before it lost.

The string of 20 successive winners, of course, was unusual, but there were many strings of seven, eight and more. With such a consistency the winners, obviously, will not pay large mutuels. But surprisingly enough some of them pay up to $8.

Such a method, too, cannot be expected to turn up with a selection in every race. It is tailored for the fan who has patience.

Selections are made easily and within a few minutes under these simple rules:

1. Note only those horses picked on top by every selector in the Daily Racing Form.

2. The horse (the one selected on top by all selectors) also must be the BEST BET of one (and only one) of these three: Handicap, Analyst, or Consensus. If two of the three, or all three, have him as BEST BET pass the race. He still is a play if any of the other three selectors have him as BEST BET.

3. Do not play maidens, two or three-year-old fillies, or steeple-chasers.

4. Track conditions must be the same as when the selections were made except a change from muddy to slow is all right.

5. Horse must have been in the money in his last start.

6. The simplest way of making selections is to look at the BEST BETS of Handicap, Analyst and Consensus. By doing it this way, only three races need to be scanned.

System Number 7

The odds quoted against a horse are comparable roughly to the difference between character and reputation. Character is what a man actually is, and reputation is what others think he is.

The odds are a reflection only of what people think of the horse's ability. They may not show an accurate relationship to his true ability. But sometimes the odds can point to very substantial horse flesh.

One good method for locating good risks is to take Sweep's graded entries in the Daily Racing Form.

1. Look only for horses quoted at 7 to 5 or lower.

2. Such horses become selections provided no other horse is held at less than 3 to 1. Otherwise, pass the race.

Do not play entries, but if one horse is scratched and the other entry still qualifies, play him.

Examples:

June 2, 1955 Balmoral at Washington Park, fourth race:

KING CHARLES—7 to 5 MARKET TIP—3 to 1
 
(All others higher than 3 to 1) KING CHARLES paid $5.20

June 2, 1955 Detroit, sixth race:

DOGGON—6 to 5 CLAMOR—5 to 1

(All other horses higher) DOGGON paid $3.60

Workout Sheet for No. 7

June 25

6th Race, Monmouth—DECATHLON. Next horse was 4½ to 1. DECATHLON paid $4.40

5th Race, Monmouth—DARK PETER and CAVORT were an entry and, as such, not qualified. But CAVORT was scratched and DARK PETER remained less than 6 to 5. The next horse was 4 to 1. DARK PETER paid $4.20

System Number 8

Another type of favorite which produces consistent good results is a selection made under these rules:

1. He must be carrying the lowest weight in the race. Another horse or two may be carrying the same weight, but none must be packing a lower weight.

2. He must be ridden by an apprentice jockey.

3. The sum total of the finishes in his last three races must be less than 10.

Rule three simply means: from past performances, consider the horse's last three races. If he finished second the last time, third the previous time and won just before that, the sum total of his last three finishes is two, plus three, plus one or a total of six. That makes him eligible since the total is less than 10.

However, if the total of the last three races exceeds 10 because one race was bad, examine that race carefully. If the horse was far over his head, throw out that race and substitute the fourth last race.

On June 20 in the ninth at Suffolk, Tarzan qualified all except his total. His finishes were 8, 4, 2. But in that last race in which he finished eighth he had gone from a $4,000 claiming race to an allowance. Now he was back at $4,000 again. Throwing out that last race and substituting the fourth last race his totals became 4, 2, 2, or eight and thus he qualified.

Tarzan paid $11.20.

On June 20, in the fifth at Arlington, Fighting Jury's finishes were 1, 5, 11, 3. The 11 was in a handicap race. Ignoring it gave a total of nine. Fighting Jury paid $8.80.

These selections produce the best results if there is a flat bet to win and double to place. In the summer time, a track will average slightly less than one play a day. In the winter, 8 to 10 plays a month is about normal.

Workout Sheet for No. 8 June 20

8th Race, Belmont—BORDER SON. Qualified otherwise and his finishes were 3, 2, 2 or total 7.

BORDER SON paid $21.20 June 25 5th Race, Narragansett—BABCHA lowest after scratches; ridden by an apprentice and finishes were 1, 1, 4 or total 6.

BABCHA paid $10.60

System Number 9

Good, solid horses can be uncovered easily and quickly by this method.

1. Consider only Trackman and the Consensus in the Daily Racing Form. If both have the same horse as BEST BET, he is a play provided:

2. The track condition is the same as that for which the selections were made.

Again, in this method, we are banking upon Trackman knowing the best horse flesh since he is right there at the track all the time. But to counter-balance him, we are using the Consensus as a backstop.

Workout Sheet for No. 9

In checking two days at random, May 12 and June 2, 1955, five winners bobbed up among six possible plays. They were: No Tricks at Balmoral (at Washington Park), $4; Agnes Lynn at Churchill Downs, $3.60; Kentucky Kid at Sportsman's Park, $3.60; Dagoon at Detroit, $3.60; and Imagen at Delaware Park, $3.60.

This is a solid method that can stand some form of progression, or it can be worked on a steady play of a fraction of the entire capital.

System Number 10

Trackman, Analyst and Sweep make up the best combination of selectors in the Racing Form if one is interested in turning up good, solid horses. The three selectors represent three different theories.

Sweep is the most conservative; Trackman, by being with the horses day after day, often turns up some that are ignored or discounted by other selectors, and Analyst has a tendency to go after longer-priced horses. As a result, when all three concur on the same top horse, he is worth the risk.

1. Play all horses picked on top by Trackman, Analyst and Sweep. Pay no attention to the other selectors.

Workout Sheet for No. 10

This method will produce 40 to 50 per cent winners. But it will do best with some form of progression. A sample of winning prices includes:

June 25

7th Race, Hazel Park—TRIP LIGHTLY paid $5.60 . June 20

5th Race, Delaware—KING HAIRAN paid $7.00

7th Race, Delaware—ANN'S LOVE paid $5.40

June 16

4th Race, Delaware—WHITE ORCHARD paid $8.60

June 23

8th Race, Delaware—THIRD BROTHER paid $4.80

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