Chapter 19 - Playing Percentage

Betting plans recover the losses.

The purpose of a system is to reduce the percentage against the player and to give him more winners.

But there are two parts to any system. One is the selection method and the other is the plan of wagering. Just as the selection method is designed to increase the percentage of winners, betting methods are drawn up to increase the "take" from those selections.

The primary system of betting is a flat sum to win, place or show or a flat sum across the board. This sum is not decreased nor increased no matter if the horse wins or loses. Players call this system "flat bets."

Before he decides if flat bets are the answers to his problem, the player should be fully aware what is involved. On the basis of 100 plays at $2 each, the player must put up a capital of $200.

Wagers on horses that average an even money payoff means the fan must collect 50 of those 100 wagers in order to break even. He doesn't start collecting any profit until he hits the 51st" winner. Obviously, if he elects to play short-priced horses, he must have a selection method that clicks consistently.

But he doesn't necessarily have to run the percentage up too high in order to make the method reward him. In such a method, what he wants above all is consistency. He seeks a method that day in and day out will consistently follow a pattern that will produce a net profit. Once he is sure of that, he can increase his profit at will by simply expanding the size of his wagers.

Suppose his system as regularly as a clock clicks off 168 55 wins at even money for every 100 days. That means for every 100 plays ($200) he wins $20, or a 10 per cent return. Any refinement that ups the percentage of winners to 60 per cent will mean $40 profit in every 100 plays. Once the player can depend upon it, he can increase that profit by as much as he cares to put into it.

As the mutuel prices increase, the percentage of winners will drop, for it means the player now is off the most substantial horses. A player who sticks to 4 to 1 horses (or a $10 mutuel), needs only 20 winners in every 100 plays to break even.

The percentage of winners and the prices they can be expected to pay must be figured together before any method can be evaluated. Cashing one ticket from every two bought is a pleasant diversion, but that high percentage might not be adequate to show a profit because the mu-tuels will be short.

The place and show payoff, too, may be studied profitably by a player contemplating certain methods of selections. A general rule is that a horse will pay half as much to place as to win and about one-third as much to show as to win. This general rule, like all such rules, is subject to many exceptions.

Often, there will be only one substantial horse in the race. Many turfites will concede that he will win but that he will be short-priced. Rather than play against him, they pick a longer-priced horse and play him for place. So many of them may follow this procedure that a 12 to 1 shot which runs second may pay only even money for place instead of $6.

Some tracks, following the example of baseball in wooing women, have a special "Ladies Day," usually on Monday when business is light. Many women, especially those not too familiar with racing, are conservative and they like to wager for place and show. A top-heavy proportion of place and show bets will throw out of kilter the general rule about payoffs.

On the other hand, an outstanding horse may pay more for second than for first because, again, fans conceded him the win and either played him or stabbed for a long shot. Few play such a horse for place or show because, after conceding the race to the favorite, they believe they will get better returns by putting their second and third money on long shots. The mighty Equipoise, in setting the world's record for the mile at Chicago, paid even money to win but $4.40 to place.

Some players like to see their capital increase faster than it can by using flat bets. Or their system may have strings of losers and they want to make certain when they do hit a winner that they not only recoup all losses but also return a net profit. To do so, they increase the amount of their bets after each loser. Any method by which the amounts of bets are changed on the basis of wins and losses is referred to by the player as "progression." And it will be called "progression" in this book.

The simplest progression, of course, but also the most deadly, is just doubling the size of each losing wager. Only a millionaire, however, can afford that as it has been pointed out.

The only practical doubling progression for the average fan would be one used with a selection method that seldom, or never, goes beyond four or five consecutive losses. His best chance for "survival" would be to have the bets done in a series called a cycle, and that at the completion of the cycle he returns to the original wager, no matter if he has won or lost.

The purpose of this chapter is to point out some progression methods and they will be referred to later by the letters given to them here:

A. A progression method adapted only for short-priced horses that show remarkable consistency.

Four bets are made, starting with $1. Each succeeding bet is TWICE the total sum previously bet until the fourth wager is $18. Win or lose, after the fourth bet, the cycle returns to $1 and anywhere in the cycle when a winner is hit, the betting also returns to $1.

The four bets, then, are: $1, $2, $6, and $18.

A winner anywhere in the cycle paying a $3 mutuel (3 to 2 odds) breaks even, and anything above $3 is profit. Naturally, this progression can be used only for the most substantial horses.

B. A "hybrid" progression that is favored by many players.

The player starts with a stated capital which may be $50, $100 or more, and his bet is always a definite percentage of his total capital.

The idea behind this method is that once a number of winners have been struck the player is increasing his bets out of profits. Such a method can ride out a good many storms.

It works like this. With a starting capital of $100, the first bet is 10 per cent, or $10. If the horse wins at even money, the total capital rises to $110 and that makes the second bet $11. Should the first bet lose, the capital is reduced to $90 and the second wager then would be $9.

Any starting capital can be used as well as any percentage of the total bets.

C. Another "hybrid" method.

This is an "escalator" method. Wagers are increased or decreased by units after each win or loss.

The first wager may be $2. A loss increases the next wager by two units or $4. Four successive losses would mean that the fifth wager is $10 and the total invested is $30. If the fifth horse wins and pays 3 to 1 or better, the whole series is wiped out and play begins again at $2.

If the fifth horse pays less than 2 to 1, which does not return a net profit for the series, play is reduced only one or two units, as the player decides. The next play then (the sixth) may be $8 or $6.

Some players like to raise and lower by one unit as a more convenient way of keeping track of wagers and also a check on capital. The disadvantage here is that the reduction by units may come just when a string of winners is starting.

D. Another "cycle" method.

Some players, after deciding by careful study just what their selection method can do, set up a method of betting in one cycle as many wagers as they may lose before clicking on a winner. Let's assume a check shows the selection method may have strings of losers from time to time of five or six or seven, but that only rarely does it go more than eight consecutive times without hitting a winner.

The wagering plan usually calls for bets equal to the sum of the last two wagers. For example: $1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 and if a ninth wager is wanted, $34.

By holding at eight, the last wager of $21 means a total investment of $54. If the eighth wager "blows," the cycle is cancelled and plays start again at $1. It is hoped that enough winning cycles will come to cancel out the losing series.

A provision also is made for winners so that the wagering can take advantage of winning streaks but does not necessarily squander all the net profit.

For example, on the sixth pay of $8, the total capital invested is $20. If this horse wins and pays an $8 mutuel, the total return is $32 and the net profit is $12. The player can start over again or he can pocket a part of the winnings and reduce his betting scale by the amount of the remainder.

He may elect to pocket $6 of the net winnings and use the other $6 to make his next two bets, or as close to it as he can get. He might decide to resume at $2 because if he loses and then bets $3 he has used up only $5 of the other $6.

Some who use this method also prefer to put it on a straight unit play and decrease and increase by units, except they never go beyond the $21 in the eight-play cycle or the $34 bet in the nine-play cycle.

E. Straight odds method.

Some players like to make each wager on the basis of odds. Their aim is to recoup all previous losses and to earn a net profit.

The method is simple. They determine what they want to win and then make the first wager on the basis of what amount must be played on their choice at his quoted odds in order to make the profit sought.

To simplify the method, let's assume a player wants to make $1. His selection is quoted at even money. He needs only to bet a dollar to win his dollar. If he loses he now is out $1. The second horse also is even money. To win back his dollar and still make a dollar profit, he must now wager $2.

F. The "due" method.

Of all the methods of progression discussed so far, the one weakness is in deciding what the player should do with winners or losers. He can*t tell in advance just how much any winner may pay and he constantly is up against the difficulty of knowing exactly how he stands.

One simple method permits the player to keep fairly well in touch with his financial situation at all stages.

This is the "due" method in which the player first determines how much he wants to win per race for every race played. Suppose he sets that figure as a dollar a race. It does not mean he wants to pocket a dollar of profit on every winner—he wants to win a net profit of one dollar for every race he plays, regardless of the number of winners or losers.

When he finishes playing 100 races, he wants to have $100. He does it this way:

He sets up four columns labeled as follows:

Due                  Bet                      Won                          Lost

Each wager is a definite percentage of the "due" column. The longer the prices of the horses he selects, the less he has to wager. Thus he may wager one-third of the due column, one-fourth, one-fifth, or any figure that suits the type of horses he is playing. He can even use one-half but winners must be fairly regular.

He proceeds by putting in the "due" column the $1 he wants to make. Assuming he settles upon the figure of one-fourth, his first wager is one-fourth of the due column, but since no bet is less than $1, he bets $1. If he loses, the due column now goes to $2 but, again, one-fourth of $2 means a $1 play.

As an example, let's take some actual plays.

Due                  Bet                Won                    Lost
$1                    $1                                            $1
$3                    $1                                            $1

(The due column goes to $3 because we lost $1 and we want to make a dollar profit on the second race.)

Due                  Bet                   Won                 Lost
$5                    $1                                            $1
$7                    $2                                            $2

(Less than 50 cents is discarded and 50 cents or more is considered another dollar.)

$10                  $3                                            $3
$14                  $4                                            $4
$19                  $5                                            $5
$24                  $6                    $30
                                                (at 4 to 1)

We now have played eight races and invested (including the eighth wager) $23. The 4 to 1 mutuel returned $30, giving a net profit of $7 which is just slightly under the $1 per race we wanted.

Let's assume the eighth horse paid only 3 to 1, or an $8 mutuel. The total winnings then would have been $18. We subtract this $18 from the due column of $24, add the dollar profit we want for the next race, and resume with a due column of $7. That calls for a $2 bet.

This method is about the simplest of all progression plans to work and understand.

If a player has a method that calls for playing two or three horses in the same race, he simply sets up a due column for each selection. He will do well, however, to alternate selections among the two or three columns in order that each column may take advantage of winning streaks and also prices.

For example, suppose a player decided to wager each time on the first and second favorites. If he kept the favorites in the same column all the time, this column would be catching the shortest price horses while the "second favorite" column would be catching longer prices. To equalize, then he should start the first race by playing the favorite in column A and the second favorite in column B. In the second race, the second favorite is back in column A and so on.

The player, on the other hand, might decide to play Sweep's first 4 to 1 selection and his first 6 to 1 (a system such as this one is described later).

If the selections were placed each time in the same column, one column would hit only 4 to 1 shots while the other got all the 6 to 1 horses. To avoid that, the selections are alternated between the columns from race to race.

The "due" method is probably the answer to 90 of every 100 players who want progression. In later chapters it will be referred to simply as the "due" method, and the only additional information given will be whether the betting goes by one-third, one-fourth or one-fifth.

And now we are ready for the systems themselves.

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