Chapter 12 - Weight And Fate

A few pounds ma y lead smart money to winners.

One of the most frequently quoted axioms of the turf is: "Weight brings them all together."

As with fair play, justice, patriotism and motherhood, everybody believes in the axiom but no two turf followers have the same theories about weight. And once the fan makes up his own mind as to what he believes the axiom means, the horse he selects may have a different version.

An elaborate system of assigning weights, as we have seen, was evolved in an effort to equalize the chances of all horses in a race. When racing first developed and for years thereafter, some horses were given a start over the others because of the differences in their abilities.

The system is based on the simple theory that the length or better start, worked only fairly well when racing was simply a pastime for gentlemen. But as racing began to move into the big time sports world, the method became unworkable, as well as undesirable.

Then someone hit upon the idea that "weight brought them all together" and a system of assigning different weights to horses in the same race was developed and refined.

The system is based on the simple theory that the best horses should carry the most weight in order to give the poorer horses a chance to win. It is the same theory that prompts a country club golf pro to assign handicaps to members so that competition may be enlivened. In effect, the handicap says one player is so many strokes better than another player.

Theoretically, then, a player should be able to rate horses in exact order of the weight they carry, starting with top weight as meaning the top horse. It can't be that simple because other factors must be considered.

The number of wins a horse has, his effort in his last race, the conditions of the present race, etc. are factors that are figured under the formula. In some stake races, such as the Kentucky Derby, it was conceded that all horses should be considered as equal and all carry the same weight, except fillies which are given five pounds less. The weights are assigned under a table which sets weights to be carried by horses of a certain age. The three-year-old male entries in the Derby carry 126 pounds.

When weights are not stated in the conditions of the race, they follow the Official Jockey Club Scale of Weights based on age, distance of race and month of the year. Even with this table or stated weight conditions for a race, horses will still run at varying weights due to allowances for apprentice jockeys, females, maidens, etc.

Such a combination as weight off last race (three pounds or more), plus placing in the money in its last race, may give a player a winning selection often overlooked by the public and the selectors. A typical race at Tropical Park provides a good illustration.

                                    Finish in                  Weight in             Weight in
Horse                           Last Race               Last Race            Today's Race

Mintaway                     3                            118                     112
Quick Lunch                 15                          119                     112
Damelot                       6                            111                     112
Swift Steve                   10                          122                     119
En Fleur                       8                            112                     116
American Pluck            6                            118                     112
Lady Elliott                   1                            105                     116
Card Trick                   2                            104                     114
Hangover                     9                            117                     123
Setubal                         4                            105                     107
Do Report                    2                            116                     119
Remand                        7                            116                     112
Landseair                     9                            113                     119

Of the horses who finished first, second or third in their last performance, only Mintaway is taking off weight for this race. All but one professional selector picked Card Trick; the public likewise went heavy on Card Trick. Mintaway won and paid a mutuel of $7.80 (a little under 3 to 1). The past performance records in the racing papers provide the information needed to make such a selection.

Since horses differ among themselves as much as human beings differ from one another, some horses have the ability to "pack" weight and still wing along in a race. Other horses sulk or quit or perform dully when the weight they must carry reaches a certain figure.

Furthermore, track conditions have some effect upon the weight a horse can carry and still show a winning effort. The general rule is that the top-weight horse has the worst of it on muddy or slow tracks. But that doesn't mean the lightest-weight horse is a "shoo in." He may be so inferior to the horse with the top weight that the advantage in pounds does him no good. Or he may not like the track conditions as well as the top-weight horse likes them.

Turf experts further disagree, as we have seen, on the exact effect of live weight and dead weight. Some believe that, other things being equal, a horse assigned 110 pounds and ridden by a jockey of 110 pounds, is a better risk than if the same horse had a jockey weighing only 104 pounds. They like to chant that one pound of live weight is equivalent to two pounds of dead weight, and that the second horse actually would be carrying the equivalent of 116 pounds.

Some owners and trainers believe so firmly in "live" weight they are willing to let their horses carry three to five pounds more in order to permit a heavier jockey to ride. Of course, some of their beliefs are prompted, too, by the fact that the heavier boy may be a more experienced rider and also may be the one who has a good way with a horse of that particular temperament.

The great Whirlaway used to come out from the starting gate like a streak and keep going until he tired. Then he lost interest in the race. His owner and trainer felt the answer was a stronger boy who would force him to come out more slowly and who could rate him better. They found such a boy in Eddie Arcaro.

There is no doubt that weight is an important variable to be considered in deciding which horse to back in a race. And the axiom that "weight brings them all together" has some truth in it. For too much weight will slow up any horse.

Weight can be compared roughly to that handicap given to golfers. If the strokes a golfer is given as a handicap are increased more and more, the time will come when the dub can beat any man in the club. If the handicap system were used in big golf tournaments, it would mean the top flight golfers got more and more penalties as they continued to win. If we let our imagination run to absurd heights, we could imagine a situation in which top flight golfers would need a birdie on every hole just to beat some duffer.

On the other hand, although weight is important, the player should not make a fetish of it. There is always that limit beyond which a horse can go and still win, but the increase of a pound or two shouldn’t worry many horses. A pound more should not make much difference to a half-ton horse.

Of course, it is not that single pound that might make the difference. The difference comes from what the extra pound represents—it is like the last straw that broke the camel's back. Three pounds of weight, however, can make a difference, most turf fans will agree. For example, in Chapter 21, see System No. 6, in which the figuring starts with horses taking off three pounds or more from the last race.

The ability of a horse to pack weight can be determined only from tests. The mighty Equipoise set many track records although track handicappers kept piling weight upon his back. But there came a time when weight stopped him—or at least slowed him down. In some races he won with comparative ease although spotting most other horses 10 to 15 pounds or more.

The player's best method for determining if a horse can carry the weight is to look at past performances. If the horse is assigned 112 pounds today at six furlongs and he won easily at that distance with 110 pounds, the additional weight probably can be discarded. If he wins today at 112 and the next time is given 115 pounds, more than he has ever carried, the player will do well to look at the situation carefully.

The player not only wants to speculate over the ability of the horse to carry the 115 pounds but also whether the weight doesn't shift the advantage now to one or more other entries.

If we call the horse carrying 115 pounds today Horse A, we may find that in his previous race there was a horse, or maybe two, who ran a close second, third, or even fourth or fifth carrying the same weight then as Horse A, which was 112 pounds.

Today Horse A is carrying 115 pounds, but the horse which finished second, third, or fourth or fifth gets in today with only 109 pounds. The six-pound weight shift may be just the margin the second horse needs to win provided other factors are equal and that racing luck is with him.

On the other hand, if Horse A won that last race by several lengths and the chart says he scored easily, he may be able to give a six-pound weight advantage to his competitors and still wing home in front. Another factor to be considered is whether the horse is rounding to form or going down again from his peak form. That, too, will have to be reasoned out from his past performances. Generally speaking, a horse rounding to form can carry added weight better than the horse which has been at his peak but which now is "going over the hill." The combination of low weight and apprentice jockeys sometimes produces amazing results. (See System No. 8 in Chapter 20.)

Weight on or weight off is not necessarily a sign of a possible win or a probable loss coming up. For each variable must be considered together as well as separately before a player can say he really made the best selection possible.

Since we already had discussed time, it might be well to recall that time and weight must be considered together as well as separately as we have done. If we note in past performances that a horse's best time for the distance he is running today was set when he was carrying as much or more weight as he is packing today, it means that the two variables—time and weight—have combined to work for us. If we can get one or two more variables to work into the same combination, we may come out with a selection that will win. In lesser handicap races, some players have profited by playing the horse with the highest weight provided he also had the highest speed rating. These races would not include the big stake races such as the Kentucky Derby, Arlington Handicap, etc.

The smart player, then, notes weight but does not make a snap decision as soon as he sees how many pounds has been assigned to the horse. Perhaps, at top weight of 112 pounds, the horse still is the best in the race although no other entry carries more than 109 pounds. On the other hand, the added weight may mean the advantage rests now with another horse in the race. Or the rating may be so close that the second horse, at odds much better, might be worth the added risk. To be sure, an even money winner is better than a 20 to 1 loser, but the difference between an even money horse and a 4, or 5, or 6 to 1 entry, may be so slight that the player feels justified in choosing the higher price and hoping for racing breaks to be in his favor.

Although weight should be figured, it seems rather foolish to reduce it to a pound or two just to add or subtract a point or two from some horse's rating. If weight figures that closely, the smart player would not worry about it. He would simply pass the race and sit in the grandstand and watch the horse himself sweat it out.

In considering weight, the player should concern himself with these factors:

1. Three pounds or more must be considered whether the horse is picking them up or shedding them. Obviously, this is an arbitrary figure, but it is the point which, checks of many races show, starts to have real meaning.

2. Weight must be considered in conjunction with time. A horse whose best time was made carrying 118 pounds should show a good effort in a race in which he shoulders three or more pounds less. If he carried 109 pounds when he ran his best time and today he is saddled with 112 or more, his time cannot be depended upon.

3. Track conditions must be considered. Generally speaking, weight takes on more significance on off tracks. That doesn't mean a few extra pounds throws out a horse when the track is muddy. For he may like the mud and do better than on a fast track with a lighter load. Past performances are the best guide to a horse's ability to shoulder weight on an off track.

4. Conditions of the race also must be studied care fully. If he is taking off weight only because he is appearing today in cheaper company, weight is not too dependable as a factor.
 
5. The date of the race in which he carried as much or more than today's assignment also must be noted. A horse, especially a cheaper one, who successfully carried more weight a month ago than he is toting today cannot be said automatically to be able to carry that load. For his form may have deteriorated too much since that race a month ago.

6. A horse which is carrying excessive weight as compared with the others, or is many pounds lighter than all the others, is not too reliable a betting tool. If he is assigned 120 pounds today and the next heaviest weight is only 112 pounds, the weight may not be a measure of his ability but simply a reflection of the penalties he has incurred for previous good efforts or for dropping down in company.

On the other hand, a horse which is carrying only 106 pounds with the next lightest horse toting 112 or 113 pounds, seldom wins.

7. The adage "weight brings them all together" must not be taken too literally. For it is just a statement of principle about handicapping and is subject to more variations than a bettor's hunches and opinions.

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