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Chapter 8 - Mathematics Is The Leading Jockey?
Frequency patterns can guide the wise pla yer. Any intense study of racing cannot fail to convince even the most skeptical that mathematical odds ride along with each horse. True, mathematics alone cannot point to a particular horse and say: "There is the winner of the fourth race." But many times it can point to a horse and say: "Here is one who has little chance." Only the most naive fan believes that of twelve horses in a race, each one has an equal chance. Even the most ardent baseball fan doesn't believe that each of the eight teams in either one of the major leagues has an equal chance of winning the pennant. The contribution of mathematics does not come from its ability to predict any particular winner. The discussion of chance probability showed that the value of mathematics comes in its ability to isolate certain patterns and to make predictions about those patterns. The first pattern is the extreme consistency of favorites. Year in and year out, on all tracks, approximately one of every three favorites will win. This means that the horse that goes to post at the lowest odds will win one of every three races. Furthermore, the horse which goes to the post with the second lowest odds wins 22 per cent of the time, or roughly one out of five; and the horse with the third lowest odds wins 12 per cent of the time, or roughly one out of eight. The actual percentage figure for the favorites is 35 59 per cent winners. Adding the three figures, it means that in all races 69 per cent of the winners will come from the horses which are among the three leading choices in the final betting. This pattern is so consistent and has held constant for so long, the player can regard it as a reliable pattern. Furthermore, the pattern has appeared in racing meets in countries other than the United States. /f there is one universal constant in racing, this is it. Winning Patterns Of Favorites To indicate how the pattern holds on the favorites, here is a random selection of ten different track meets in 1960* showing the number of races won by the favorites. Pet. of Ak-Sar-Ben 327 98 30% •In the 37,661 races run In I960, 12,787 favorites finished first for a 34% average. Some of the uses which the player can make of this constant pattern are obvious. If he knows that practically 70 per cent of all races are won by the first, second or third choices, the player can estimate just what odds are against him when he stabs around for long shots. These long shots must come from only 30 per cent of the races. And the long shots must include the fourth and fifth favorites which between them account for about nine per cent more of the races. Depending upon the size of the field, the fourth or even the fifth favorite may pay $10 or less. If the pattern is set forth in terms of races, it means this for the player: An average race has 10 horses. In 10 races, 100 horses will be running. Seven of those races will get their winners from 30 of the horses, the first, second or third choices. The remaining three races will draw their winners from 70 horses. Selecting only three winners from 70 horses is almost the proverbial needle-in-the-haystack task. The stack becomes bigger, however, and the needle becomes smaller when the player realizes that these 70 horses are relatively poor ones to figure on form. The fact that professional selectors and the general public regard them as poor risks and thus hold them at high odds is due largely to the fact that they have displayed poor racing condition. Of the 70 horses, the "sharpest" ones will still be poor risks because obviously they are in with too fast company or they would be among the three top choices. Their past performances may be good, but these results were made with horses of their own kind. The question always is with these horses: how far can they jump in class in any one race? The situation is somewhat comparable to a home run fence buster in a Class D baseball league. How far up can this player be moved before he bogs down? The player, however, by careful study still might be able to go against both selectors and the public. A horse named Makern showed up on the Chicago circuits the other year without too much success. In a six and a half furlong race, he took a commanding lead but wilted badly before he even hit the stretch. At six furlongs, he failed again and finally he was placed in a race at five and a half furlongs. This time he led into the stretch and then faded. One day he was entered in a five-furlong race but with a better class of horses than he had been meeting. Since his past performances were bad, the coup de grace for him in the players' minds that day was the fact that he was being stepped up in company. Winning Patterns On 2nd Choices, Odds-On, Outsiders Here are the records of wins for 2nd choices, odds-on, and outsiders for a typical racing year. No. of Albuquerque 63 11-17.5% 5 of 9 30-47.6% One fan, however, decided to take a chance on this theory: The horse always came out of the gates with blinding speed. The player's hunch told him that although the other horses were better, they might not be able to catch Makern in time. In other words, the player was not wagering that Makern was the best horse in the race. He was basing his opinion solely on the idea that even a mediocre horse who can cut out a wide lead at the start might be able to stick it out for five furlongs. Or stated another way: the better horses might not be able to close fast enough. Again, Makern came out of the gates with his flashing speed, and soon had opened a five-length lead before the others had settled rightly into their strides. The two sharp turns were also in his favor because horses in the pack had to go "overland" in an attempt to pass while Makern, on the rail from the start, wheeled around without loss of time or distance. In the stretch, it became clear to everybody that the real race was whether the pack could close fast enough in the short distance. Makern, tiring badly, just staggered across the finish line a head in front. Ten or fifteen more feet to go would have lost the race for him. The payoff was well worth the $2 risk taken by the player. Mathematics point out many other patterns. Sprint races, six furlongs or less, show definite patterns in terms of percentage of winning favorites. But the pattern becomes more pronounced if the track is muddy, or worse than just "slow." And the percentage of such winners goes up still higher if the favorite draws post position number one. There is a definite reason for this "off track" pattern. The going next to the rail is the most "solid" of any place on that kind of a track. The favorite hardly would be held so highly in the public esteem unless he were a fast breaker. The horse which breaks fast and gets the rail not only has the best racing strip but the mud he kicks into the face of the pack discourages even the best horses. We already have seen that mathematics can be applied to odds-on favorites, and that here also the winning percentage increases with a muddy or worse than slow track. Here, too, the same factors of a better racing strip and confusion to the pack boost the percentage of winners. More than two dozen "systems" have been based on some method of playing No. 1 post position on all types of tracks. The "inventors" claim that since this horse is nearest the rail he has less distance to travel and hence has a distinct advantage. These "inventors," however, are confusing horses with mechanical rabbits because on a fast track the slight extra distance means nothing. On a muddy or worse than slow track the situation changes. It's not the extra distance that handicaps the pack but the factors already mentioned: they must race out in the deepest "goo," and they must take a barrage of mud as they tear around the track. Taking general favorites as a class, the odds are about 25 to 1 that a full card of eight races will be run without at least one favorite winning. Furthermore, the average 33 per cent of winning favorites can be raised to 45 per cent if the player sticks to one particular type of favorite. This is the horse which opens at not more than 8 to 5 and never goes above 2 to 1, provided no other horse in the race opens at 2 to 1. (See System No. 1 in Chapter 20.) Even in such races, mathematics can help the player still further. In such races, the percentage of winning second favorites rises from 22 to 37 per cent. The second favorite in such races might pay a mutuel up to $10 or $12, and thus may be a much better risk than the favorite. Moreover, in races in which the favorite opens at 2 or 21/2 to 1 and never drops below 2 to 1, the third or fourth favorite has a slight winning edge, but sometimes the tote board is not sensitive enough to register a few cents difference between the third and fourth favorite odds or between the fourth and fifth favorites. A player stands a chance, then, of playing a horse which technically was not the exact selection. The player, however, still can thank mathematics in this type of race because it will tell him to stay off the favorite or play with caution. Some players wager on the fourth favorite in this type of race and use a one-fourth due plan as described on the chapter on betting methods (Chapter 19, "Playing Percentage"). It has been pointed out that long shots, which include every horse from the fourth favorite on, come only in three races out of ten. The player in quest of long shots can help himself by limiting his action to races in which the favorite opens at 3 to 1 or higher. The high odds indicates that the race is "wide open." For example, on April 28 in the eighth race at Laurel, the favorite was $3.30 to 1. The winner was Concentrator who paid $71.80. On the same day, in the ninth at Sportsmen's Park, the favorite was $3.90 to 1. Bold X won and paid $18.60. On April 30, these winners showed up in races in which the favorite was 3 to 1 or higher: Churchill Downs, second race, Stroller, $19.80; seventh race, Reclaim, $22.60. On May 1 at Laurel, third race, Miss Winston $21.20; eighth race, Sea Admiral, $25.80. At Churchill Downs, second race, Bon-Ru-Mar, $20.60. On May 2, eighth race at Sportsmen's Park, Arrat II, $24.20. The figures between 33 and 37 show so many times in racing that they might be considered "magical" numbers. Besides being the percentage of winning favorites, year in and year out, the 33-37 figure spread also turned up in a five-year survey of an eastern racing circuit. On 37 per cent of the days in those five years, a fan would have obtained a profit by merely playing every favorite to win. During those five years, there were only 25 days in which no favorites won. That is equivalent to odds of 27 to 1 against any day ending without at least one favorite heading home first. There was no day in which favorites failed to get into the money for at least show honors, although on six days no favorite did better than show. The second favorite returned a profit on 380 days, but there were 130 days in which no second favorite won. But there were only six days in which second favorites failed to get into the money. This pattern of 35 to 37 per cent, or roughly one-third, appearing in both the percentage of winning favorites and the days on which straight bets on favorites would show a profit, is a phenomenon that should not be discarded too lightly by the player. It is so constant that the fan can use it as a basis for both positive and negative calculations. On the positive side, he might fashion a system based on some pattern of playing the favorites. He might play the favorite in the feature race only each day or, perhaps, in the two best races on the daily card. Or he might choose only sprints, that is, races of six furlongs or less. A still further way of using the magical figures in a positive way would be to play only races with eight or fewer starters. On the negative side, the magical numbers can steer the fan in his stab for a long shot. It has been pointed out that his best chance for long shots come in races in which the favorite is 3 to 1 or higher. In fact, this type of race is "made to order" for long shots. On the positive side, the fan also might be able to combine his own method of dealing with variables in such a way that his visits to the track do not cost him anything. On the other hand, he might take a negative approach and use the 35 to 37 pattern to tell him whether he should ride with the favorite or pass up the race. Some players have played both the favorite and the second favorite in the same race. They establish two "due" columns as described in the chapter on betting methods ("Playing Percentage," Chapter 19), and wager one-half on the "due" amount. Technically, they cash one bet of every two, but, of course, not in that consistent order. This method requires a fair amount of capital and also courage and persistence. But mathematics still is not done. A five-year check shows definite patterns in how favorites fare in each race on the day's card. Many fans have been skeptical about playing favorites in the last race of the day on the ground that cheaper horses usually are entered, that many in the crowd start for the gates and pass it up, thus upsetting the odds, and also the subconscious belief that "things might be going on" in the last race. Actually, the last race is just as honest as the first or any other race. Mathematics, however, agrees with the fan who decides to pass up the last race or who decides to bet against the favorite. For the last race treats favorites the roughest of all, the record shows. The first race on the card also leaves some players skeptical about the favorite. A check, however, shows twice as many favorites win the first race as win the last one. There is only about an eight per cent difference between the percentage of favorites which win the first race and those which win the fourth race, the race that shows the best record of all. Some reasons as to why the fourth race shows the highest percentage of winning favorites can only be guessed. Usually, the fourth race is a good race but not the top race of the day in terms of value of the purse or class of horses. In addition to attracting a good caliber of horses, the fourth race also often has a limited number of entries which helps to minimize racing luck. Much can happen to a horse even in a two-horse race, but usually the smaller the field the less likelihood of something going wrong. The last race on the card often has the most, or the next to the largest, number of entries of any race on the card. The big fields permit horses to be bumped, jostled, thrown off stride, forced wide or subjects them to the many other hazards that help to make up "racing luck." On many eight-race programs, the sixth race is the feature race which attracts the best horses and which offers the largest purse. Usually this is a handicap or a high grade allowance race. In such races, several entries may be evenly matched, and the favorite may not be the true favorite. Anyhow, the sixth race is the second poorest one for favorites although the percentage of winning favorites in sixth races is nearly 50 per cent more than for the last race of the day. The five-year check showed the average mutuel paid by the favorite was $5.10. But a figure that can have more meaning to the player is the mean which was slightly under $5. In other words, the greatest number of favorites paid just under $5. These, then, are some of the mathematical patterns that appear in racing and which turn up with amazing regularity. The prudent player often may be wiser to ride with mathematics than with a horse. To help the reader easily refer to the mathematical patterns mentioned in Chapters Three and Four, they are listed below in brief form. Keep in mind that these are all averages. Proven Mathematical Patterns (1) The favorite (horse with lowest odds at the post) wins one out of three races (actual percentage is 35% ). (2) The horse with second lowest odds (second favorite) wins about one out of five races (actual percentage is 22%). (3) The horse with the third lowest odds wins one out of eight races (actual percentage is 12% ). (4) The three leading choices in betting win 69% of all races. (5) Fourth and fifth favorites account for 9% of the winners. (6) If the favorite is odds-on, that is less than even money, the winning percentage is 70%. This percentage goes even higher on muddy tracks. (7) Sprint races, six furlongs or less, produce a higher percentage of winning favorites, and muddy tracks show even higher number of winning favorites. (8) Add to the conditions in (7) number one post position and the favorite shows even better winning form. (9) The favorite who opens at no more than 8 to 5 and never goes above 2 to 1, providing no other horse in the race opens as low as 2 to 1, wins 45% of the time. (10) Under the conditions stated in (9), the second favorite has a 37% winning average. (11) When the favorite opens at 2 or 2½. to 1 and never drops below 2 to 1, the third and fourth favorites together win 60% of the time. (12) Long shots, every horse from the fourth favorite on, win 30% of all races. (13) Favorites show the poorest winning percentage in the last race of the day. (14) Favorites show the best winning form in the fourth race. (15) The greatest number of winning favorites pay a mutuel just under $5. The wise player will think carefully about these mathematical patterns that show up in racing as in no other sport. If he doesn't make use of them directly, he may find that indirectly they will help him a lot. The long-shot player, for example, can see in cold figures his chances of winning and the number of times he can expect to win. It might aid him in determining certain conditions under which it is better to pass up a race than make his usual play. On the other hand, the player who likes to figure them closer to form knows now the exact mathematical pattern so-called form horses will follow over an extended period. That, too, should guide him either in the direction of winners or, if he wishes to take negative advantage of it, the pattern might steer him off horses whose chances are far less than any form of handicapping could disclose. Are You Ready To Move Onto The Next
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