Chapter 5 - Betting On Horses-Fact, Fiction And Sport

Today's racing favors the fan who knows "the variables."

The sight of eight or ten or more horses pounding down the stretch raises the blood pressure of even the most phlegmatic fan, but it goes still higher if the horse of that fan's choice gets down front at the finish. The fan doesn't care particularly if the horse wins by a city block or by a nose except that camera finishes impose five or six more minutes of wear and tear on the nerves while the photograph is being developed and studied by the judges. The payoff, however, is the same no matter if the horse just coasted around the track or if he came from behind with one of those "remember the mortgage is due" bursts of final speed.

The trip to the cashier's window, pleasant as it may be, is almost anti-climactic. For as soon as the player's number goes up on the tote board and the official sign flashes, it means the fan has won a contest of skill and stamina against the horse, and many times against man, too. This is especially true if the player's choice was not thought of too highly by the track handicapper or by the professional handicappers for the specialized racing press.

The player is ready always for alternate "celebrations." If his choice was not regarded highly by the handicappers, the fan rejoices because he outsmarted the professionals and perhaps also the horse. If his choice was selected by most of the handicappers, the player rejoices because he had sense enough to recognize their skill in selection.

This eternal guessing game between man and horse adds zest to the sport. The fan, if he attempts to arrive at his own selections, concocts a series or set of variables in a pattern that will point to the possible winner. Statisticians, those boys who work with figures and for whom figures also work, say any trait that can be classified in a frequency distribution is known as a variable.

The race fan simply says a variable is any element that can be used in figuring probable winners. For the fan's purpose, traits are class, weight, distance, consistency, time {or speed) and possible track conditions such as fast, slow, muddy, etc. The fan can add, subtract, multiply, divide or re-arrange these traits for every horse in the race and come up with some kind of an answer.

Neither the player—nor owner, trainer or jockey— can measure such things as the horse's mood. He may feel like running today and again he may not feel like running. If he does feel nice running he may run a good but quite ordinary race. Or he may be like a baseball player who gets "red hot" and performs feats that would seem like a miracle for him on other days.

The horse's good intentions may be nullified by the 1,000 and one things that can happen to the animal during the race. And if nothing happens to the horse, the jockey may fall off with the finish line in sight. These things are not variables because they cannot be classified, measured or predicted. The fan lumps them under the general heading of "racing luck."

Each fan who does his own figuring, devises some method of dealing with each variable. One fan may be impressed with weight—either weight taken on over the last race or weight taken off; to another fan weight may be a minor consideration. Another player may take great stock in the time of the horse's last race or his latest workout while still another player may believe time has little to do with picking winners.

It doesn't matter which variable receives the most attention from a fan or how he adds, subtracts, divides or multiplies them, if he wins he is confident he selected the winner scientifically. If he loses, he blames it on the horse, jockey, trainer, track officials or bad racing luck. Or if the player is in a very generous mood despite his loss, he may put the blame on some condition which he overlooked or failed to stress sufficiently. Then he buries himself in a racing paper to pick the next winner.

Succeeding chapters of this book will discuss the variables of racing and show some of the methods by which these variables have been combined in the hope that the combination, or system, will produce a pattern that will lead to winners. Naturally, no pattern will predict, with 100 per cent accuracy, the winner of any one particular race. The purpose of establishing a pattern is to predict what percentage of winners might reasonably be expected from a particular number of plays.

In working out a system that gives an edge over the general public, the fan should keep these points in mind:

1. The public's money determines the odds in each race; the horse upon which the most money is bet goes to the post as the favorite.
2. Year in and year out, about 33 per cent of the favorites win. This is such a constant figure that it will vary only a few points at any particular track. In many foreign countries, the same percentage holds true.
3. The percentage of favorites, stated another way, means that approximately one of every three favorites wins. This figure, naturally, is valid only for a long period such as an entire season.
4. In a shorter period, such as a week or a month, the favorite may win only once in 10 races or it may win in seven races out of 10. The fan can never be sure.
5. The winning price paid by favorites ranges from less than even money to 6 or 7 to 5. A few win at higher prices but over a long period will average out at a little less than even money.

Therefore, any system intended for flat bet plays (that is a bet of the same amount on every pay) must pass up many favorites and produce selections with higher odds. The systems in this book are divided into Security (usually short odds), Medium-Security and Long Shots, each with its own rules and also hazards.

The number of winners which must be produced vary with the type of system. Obviously, a Security system, with its low prices, must turn out many winners. It should require less capital and provide more safeguards for that capital.

A Long-Shot system will produce fewer winners, naturally, but the prices will be much greater. Generally, it will require more capital to operate and will have longer streaks of consecutive losers.

1. The fan must remain consistent to the system he chooses and must avoid the temptation of trying to seek action in every race if the system does not turn up that many selections.

Since racing is a sport, the fan should approach it in the same manner he does any other sport or recreation in which he engages or which he follows. His racing bill should be charged to recreation and this means he should limit his betting to the sum he actually can afford to lose without being hard-pressed for money. The fan who goes to the track intent upon making a "killing" soon finds he is in the "soup" over his head and winds up wagering the rent money.

Such a player, once he starts getting in deep water, begins to stab desperately for long shots in order to get "even." Racing no longer is fun to him because he just must win or face some dire consequence. The more desperate he becomes the more his judgment and good sense become warped and the more elusive becomes that one long shot which is supposed to pull him from the "soup." P.S.: He finally winds up on the front page of the newspapers.

This book is intended, then, for those who find racing is both a sport and fun. It is hoped the reader will not only get some new ideas but will also profit by what others have discovered about this fascinating pastime and thus will prevent his trying some ideas that already have been tested and found to be faulty.

One player, for example, after studying the selections of a newspaper handicapper for several days, noted that the writer never failed in any one day to pick at least one winner. So the player decided to play the selections and keep doubling after each loss until a winner was struck. Had he known even the fundamentals of the statistical side of racing, he would have realized that handicappers frequently have strings of twenty or more consecutive losses. The player who started with $2 and doubled up after each loss soon would find himself faced with playing $256 after only eight losses, and by the time he made his twentieth bet he would be called upon to wager more money than the track had handled the whole previous day.

This book also will reveal the "lowdown" on tips, touts, and that inevitable "straight from the horse's mouth" information that is about as reliable as the claims old-time medicine men made for their stuff in bottles. For despite all that can be written or said, hundreds of fans still believe that somewhere just over the rainbow is a man who knows more than the horses do—because even the horses are not sure which one will come home first.

This book also will show thirty-six "patterns" or systems which have been found to be consistent and profitable, and fourteen of these are so brand-new they are hardly out of the testing mill. These are the patterns which have resulted from long study in the ever intriguing quest of trying to find a way to restore the balance in the odds between man and horse—and give the man the benefit.

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